Petrol and diesel prices are set for sharp increases from Wednesday, September 2, after ongoing conflict in the Middle East put international oil prices under pressure.
Month-end fuel price data from the Central Energy Fund is pointing to petrol price increases in the region of 96 cents for 93 Unleaded and R1.07 for 95 Unleaded.
The outlook is even more severe for diesel, with the CEF data showing that prices could rise by around R2.71 in the case of 500ppm diesel and R2.92 for 50ppm.
Illuminating paraffin is looking set for an increase in the region of R2.12.
However, these predictions are based on unaudited CEF data; the official adjustments will be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources early this week. The Slate Levy, which currently stands at 61 cents, could also have a bearing on the final calculations. This levy compensates oil companies for international price fluctuations in the preceding month.
Fuel price rollercoaster
2026 has been a highly volatile year for South African fuel prices, with 95 Unleaded petrol having increased by R5.24 between March and August, while the wholesale price of diesel has risen by R7.60 in that time.
A litre of 95 Unleaded currently costs R25.30 at the coast and R26.17 inland, where 93 Unleaded retails for R25.42. The wholesale price of 500ppm diesel is currently listed at R25.29 at the coast and R26.16 inland. This is after both grades of petrol decreased by 52 cents per litre at the beginning of August, while diesel increased by between R1.23 (50ppm) and R1.38 (500ppm).
Petrol prices peaked at R27.19 in June, while diesel’s high point was R30.30 in May.
International oil markets have seen significant volatility since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February, with the critical Strait of Hormuz oil passage mostly shut to shipping traffic.
Little hope on the horizon
Oil prices currently remain well above their pre-war levels of around $70 per barrel. However, while Brent Crude has traded around the $90 mark for most of August, it is still significantly lower than its highs of around $126 reached earlier in the year.
JP Morgan Global Research now expects Brent crude to average $86 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, before easing to $80 in the fourth quarter and $78 by the end of the year.
The bank said the oil market had rebalanced as demand losses proved larger than expected, while draws from commercial inventories in OECD countries were smaller than anticipated. China was cited as an example of potential demand destruction.
JP Morgan also expects long-term damage to oil production in the Gulf region to be limited, although uncertainty over the future of OPEC could make oil price forecasts more difficult.
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